China's Fertiliser Export Controls Squeeze Middle East Agriculture: What Importers Need to Know
China's rolling fertiliser export controls have reduced shipments to Middle Eastern markets by 35%, driving Gulf states to diversify sourcing and invest in domestic production capacity.
- Scope and timeline of Chinese export controls
- Impact on Middle Eastern agricultural supply chains
- Diversification strategies emerging
- Geopolitical dimensions of fertiliser trade
- Outlook and risk assessment
Scope and timeline of Chinese export controls#
China has maintained various forms of fertiliser export restrictions since 2021, with the latest round of controls tightening inspection and licensing requirements for urea, DAP and NPK compound fertilisers. Export volumes of major fertiliser types fell 35% from peak levels for Middle Eastern destinations during the twelve months to March 2026. The controls aim to ensure domestic food security by keeping fertiliser prices affordable for Chinese farmers. Customs authorities have implemented additional documentation requirements that effectively slow shipment processing by two to four weeks.
Impact on Middle Eastern agricultural supply chains#
Gulf states that rely on Chinese fertiliser imports have experienced price increases of 40-60% for urea and phosphate products since controls intensified. Saudi Arabia, which imported $420 million in Chinese fertilisers in 2023, saw shipments drop to $270 million in 2025. The UAE, Oman and Bahrain face acute supply constraints due to limited alternative sourcing infrastructure. Agricultural production in the region has been affected, with some Gulf hydroponic and greenhouse operations reporting input cost increases exceeding 50%.
Diversification strategies emerging#
Middle Eastern importers are accelerating sourcing diversification to Russia, Morocco, Canada and domestic production. Saudi Arabia's Ma'aden has expanded phosphate production capacity to partially offset Chinese supply reductions. The UAE signed a long-term fertiliser supply agreement with Morocco's OCP Group valued at $300 million annually. Oman is developing domestic urea production facilities leveraging its natural gas resources to reduce import dependency.
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Geopolitical dimensions of fertiliser trade#
China's fertiliser export controls intersect with broader food security concerns across the Middle East, a region that imports 85% of its food. Gulf states view reliable fertiliser supply as a strategic priority linked to agricultural self-sufficiency programmes under Vision 2030 and similar national strategies. Diplomatic engagement between GCC and Chinese officials has sought to secure exemptions or priority allocation for Gulf buyers. The controls have also complicated China's Belt and Road agricultural cooperation commitments in the region.
Outlook and risk assessment#
Chinese fertiliser export controls are expected to persist through at least 2027 as domestic food security remains a political priority. Middle Eastern markets should plan for sustained supply constraints and elevated prices for Chinese-origin fertilisers. Regional production investments will take 2-3 years to reach meaningful scale. Importers are advised to build strategic inventory buffers and establish contracts with multiple non-Chinese suppliers to mitigate ongoing supply risk.
People also ask
Why is China restricting fertiliser exports?
China maintains fertiliser export controls to ensure domestic food security by keeping fertiliser prices affordable for Chinese farmers, with restrictions covering urea, DAP and NPK compound fertilisers.
How have Chinese fertiliser export controls affected Middle Eastern agriculture?
Gulf states have experienced fertiliser price increases of 40-60% and supply volume reductions of 35%, with some greenhouse operations facing input cost increases exceeding 50%.
Where are Gulf states sourcing fertiliser instead of China?
Gulf importers are diversifying to Russia, Morocco and Canada, while Saudi Arabia and Oman are investing in domestic production capacity leveraging phosphate deposits and natural gas resources.
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