Understanding Opportunity Scores

Every expansion candidate gets a score from 0 to 100. This represents how strong the evidence is that the product will succeed in your business.

• 70–100: Strong candidate — high demand evidence, good margin, low risk
• 50–69: Promising — worth investigating further or testing with a small order
• 30–49: Speculative — some signal but limited evidence
• Below 30: Weak — low confidence, consider only if you have domain expertise suggesting otherwise

The score combines multiple signals:

• Demand evidence (40% weight) — purchase correlation, search trends, and category spending patterns
• Margin potential (25% weight) — estimated gross margin based on typical pricing in the category
• Fit with your business (20% weight) — how closely the product relates to your existing range and customer base
• Risk factors (15% weight) — cannibalization risk, supplier complexity, and capital required

Each candidate also shows a confidence level (high, medium, or low) separate from the score. Confidence reflects how much data backs the recommendation:

• High confidence — based on your actual sales data with clear patterns
• Medium confidence — based on partial data or industry benchmarks
• Low confidence — limited data, more of an educated guess

A high score with low confidence means the opportunity looks great on paper but needs more data to validate.